The Role of IVERMECTIN in the Monumental decline of COVID19 Cases in INDIA

 

This was my June 2021 Article on Ivermectin use in India. I will make a follow-up article later which will really astonish everyone on Ivermectins Role in India. 

Ivermectin has been in the news since last year as it was and is used for the prevention, treatment, and management of COVID19 patients. Though the indication is, anti-parasitic, it has proven through several studies that it has both antiviral and anti-inflammatory properties. This has been prescribed and more than 3.5 billion pills have been taken orally since 1992, it has barely 19 deaths and 5, 236 adverse effects. It is also a Nobel prize awardee in the ranks of Aspirin and Penicillin.

   28% of the world's countries are currently using Ivermectin, however, out of the 32 countries only 13 are using it Countrywide. There are several randomized control trials for IVM which showed promising results. However, the Metanalysis presented by the Evidence-Based Consulting Group of Dr. Tess Lawrie provided all the rock-solid evidence needed to show the efficacy and safety of Ivermectin against COVID19

India has a mixed usage of Ivermectin in Different Regions. It is the second-most popul populous country in the world and has the second largest by land area.
India last month has been on the headlines, high spike of cases and shortages of oxygen supplies in the hospital. Let us look at the numbers and see where India was last month and where it is now at present in terms of the COVID19 crisis management.

On February 18, 2021 , an article entitled, "Role of Ivermectin in the Prevention of SARS Cov-2 Infection among healthcare workers in India: A matched case-control study," was published at PMC, US National Library of Medicine, National Institute of Health, The Conclusion was;

"Two-dose ivermectin prophylaxis at a dose of 300 μg/kg with a gap of 72 hours was associated with a 73% reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers for the following month. Chemoprophylaxis has relevance in the containment of pandemic."

On May 19, 2021, the AIIMS or All India Institute of Medicine and Sciences/ICMR- COVID19 National Task Force/Joint Monitoring Group included Ivermectin in the Treatment protocol for Mild Cases, a Clinical Guidance for Management of Adult Covid-19 patients.

Let us look at several regions that implemented the use of Ivermectin for mild COvid19 cases. The 4 Regions that we will look into are as follows; Delhi, Goa, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.

Delhi, India Capital has 18.98 million having a massive metropolitan area. Ivermectin was given to adults for mild symptoms.

Delhi showed a significant drop of COVID 19 cases From the peak of 24,331 last August 23, 2021, After starting the AIIMS protocol on May 19, on May 30, 2021, there were only 946 cases or a 96.11% decline of cases. The Death cases dropped by 80.8 %

Goa, the western state of India, made up of coastal lines has a population of 1.817 million (stats since 2012).

On May 10 a preemptive policy was adopted by giving Ivermectin to adults. There was a consistent downtrend within the month a 71.09% decrease of cases and a 70.6% decrease in deaths.

Uttar Pradesh Region, with more than 200 million inhabitants, is the most populous state of India.

On April 10, 2021 Ivermectin was introduced in accordance with the AIIMS COVID19 Guidelines.

“We introduced it (Ivermectin) for three days, 12 mg as advised in the national guidelines at the time, followed by tests on the fourth or fifth day." - Prabhu N Singh, Agra District Magistrate

From 37,944 last April 20, 2021, it had a sharp downtrend to 1,864 cases on June 2,2021, a 95.08% decrease. Deaths dropped 46.31 % as well.

The last Region is Tamil Nadu, located in the southern region with a population size of 67.86 million. This Region had a different approach in the management of COVID19." May 15, Madhu Pai, MD, Ph.D., professor of epidemiology & global health and the Christian Medical College Vellore in the southern state of Tamil Nadu group updated their guidance to state that it recommends "against using ivermectin for treatment of patients with any severity of COVID-19. Ivermectin should only be used in the context of a randomized controlled trial."

A decline of only 21.26% was noted in COVID19 cases after May 15 but still an uphill number of deaths. Same country, different management, different outcome.

In Summary;
1. Regions that used Ivermectin showed the ff:
a. 87.42 % average significant decrease of COVID19 cases
b. 65.9 % average decrease of COVID19 deaths
2. Region who banned Ivermectin:
a. 21.26% decrease of COVID19 cases
b. Death cases are still peaking

IVERMECTIN has a great role in the management of COVID19 infection. Despite that it was only given in mild cases and not in moderate to severe, Ivermectin has shown its efficacy. It would be good to take note that India has 11.2 percent of the population vaccinated on the first dose and 3.2% full vaccination. The vaccination cannot take credit for the dramatic decrease of cases and deaths. for a community to have herd Immunity, it has to have 70% to 90% vaccinated. Hence herd immunity is far from the truth in relation to the numbers seen at present.

It would be good to see the numbers and figures once IVM is used for moderate to severe COVID19 cases.

Reference:
https://ivmmeta.com/
https://ourworldindata.org/
http://bit.ly/COVID19SEARCH
https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/COVID19ClinicalManagementProtocolAlgorithmAdults19thMay2021.pdf
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/92644
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/uttar-pradesh-government-says-ivermectin-helped-to-keep-deaths-low-7311786